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On August 12th, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares broke through the 500 billion yuan mark, with a total turnover of 495.88 billion yuan for the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index remained volatile. On the morning of the 13th, the three major stock indices opened low, and as of the time of writing, all three indices were slightly down.

Looking back, the last time such a low turnover occurred was on May 25, 2020. Looking forward, is A-shares still facing lower volumes or is it the beginning of a new round of reversal? Industry insiders have different views on this. The current listed companies are still in the period of disclosing their semi-annual performance, and uncertain factors such as overseas geopolitical tensions have made investors cautious.

"Referring to May 25, 2020, when the turnover of the two markets was 482.5 billion yuan, followed by a reversal trend. I believe that this time, A-shares are also expected to be close to the reversal point," Hu Yu, Chief Economist of Xinding Fund, said to the First Financial Daily reporter. Currently, the total market value of A-shares is around 67 trillion yuan, calculated based on China's 2023 GDP total scale of 126 trillion, the securitization rate of A-shares is only 53%, while the overall securitization rate of the US stock market has reached 200%.

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Deng Lijun, a strategy analyst at Huajin Securities, believes that A-shares may continue the rebound trend in the short term. From the perspective of the molecular end, the short term may see marginal improvement, economic expectations may improve in the short term, exports are still maintaining a relatively high growth rate; the acceleration of stable growth policies may increase investment and consumption growth rates, and the trend of rising earnings growth in A-shares' mid-term reports is expected to continue. In terms of liquidity, it remains loose, and it is still very likely that the Fed will cut interest rates in September; under the background of domestic fiscal policy efforts, monetary policy may further loosen, and short-term financing and foreign capital inflows may see marginal increases.

Fan Jituo, a strategy analyst at Cinda Securities, also said that the period from late August to September is expected to be an important turning point for A-shares. "After the completion of the first wave of rises in mid-May, the time for consolidation may be limited, and the space for consolidation is not much left." He believes that after each adjustment, a quarter of the rise will mostly see a consolidation, and since 2005, each bull market's first year's second quarter has seen a consolidation. There is a lack of optimistic reasons on the profit level in the short term, so the market may still fluctuate. The key to whether a reversal can be verified after late August depends on whether the economy and profits can improve.

In the view of Li Lifeng, a strategy analyst at Huaxin Securities, last week the renminbi appreciated significantly, and the offshore renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar once rose to near 7.0, greatly easing the policy pressure to stabilize the exchange rate. There are two main factors for the appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate: First, the market expects that the monetary policies of Japan and the United States will continue to diverge, and the expectation of narrowing interest rate differences between Japan and the United States has suppressed the US dollar bulls, indirectly promoting the appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate; second, recently, domestic policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption have been strengthened, which has boosted market confidence.

Wu Xinkun, a strategy analyst at Haitong Securities, said that under the background of aging, social pressures are increasing, and the demand for spiritual sustenance consumption is rising. Investors should pay attention to the related opportunities in the entertainment sector. Looking at the Japanese experience, "cost-effectiveness" may become the core demand of daily consumption, and China's consumption is also showing a trend towards high cost-effectiveness. The consumer industry has structural investment opportunities.